Allow me to give you a guaranteed money-making strategy: fade my NFL picks. No need for analytics, just zag away from the guy whose only success in Vegas came at the roulette table, one of the least skillful games on earth.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at NY Giants
Watching Russell Wilson barrage the Cowboys secondary with the deep ball last week was like talking with an old friend about our “glory days,” the time when our bodies moved without fear of the next morning’s reprisal. Unfortunately for Wilson and the Giants, no offense relying on a deep ball attack will generate enough points.
Chris Jones and his D-line buddies will pressure Wilson into a parade of “three-and-outs.”
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense may not score points as efficiently as they did in previous seasons, but they will score enough points this Sunday.
Winner: Chiefs (-5.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at New England Patriots
Conventional wisdom tells me that there’s no way the Steelers will lose this game and fall to 1-2. Their defense will pressure and frustrate Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, and Aaron Rodgers still has enough magic left to get the job done.
But here’s the problem: the Steelers’ defense looks like a sieve. Kenneth Walker’s game-clinching touchdown run on 3rd-and-goal from the 19 proves that there is something clearly wrong. The Patriots’ offense can exploit that defense.
Winner: Patriots (+1.5)
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Yes, the Seahawks won by two touchdowns last week. That may say more about the Steelers’ defensive struggles than Seattle’s offensive prowess. Plus, there is a little fool’s gold here — one of those touchdowns was the end-zone recovery on the kickoff, a play that may never happen again for another 20 years.
Sam Darnold deserves credit for rebounding after two first-half turnovers, but that’s not a recipe for a successful offense.
Bottom line: that’s too big of a point spread. New Orleans will keep this game close. I’ve got Seattle winning by 3.
Winner: New Orleans (+7.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
The Eagles’ offense isn’t running on all cylinders yet. I love all things Jalen Hurts –his approach to life and work ethic — but he only managed to throw for 101 yards last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. How can an offense with Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith only gain 101 yards through the air?
Sure, the Eagles’ defense is playing well, coming off a lockdown performance when they held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to 17 points on 187 yards passing (1 TD and 1 INT). But they face a different challenge with the Los Angeles Rams, featuring Matthew Stafford ready to sling the ball all over the field to Puka Nacua.
The Rams’ defense puts plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which we all know is the key to stopping any passing attack. Normally, teams don’t recover quickly from losing a future Hall of Famer like Aaron Donald, but the Rams are in good shape with Jared Verse.
Look, Sunday would turn out well for me if the Eagles sent the Rams home with a big L. To do that, though, the Eagles will need to play much better on offense. The Rams are one of the teams that can push Jalen Hurts out of his comfort zone. Add in that the Rams aren’t misfiring on offense like last week’s Chiefs — I’m taking the Rams plus the points.
Winner: Rams (+3.5)
Categories: NFL
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