The Prognosticator hat is on. College football week 8 is here, but before parsing through week 8’s “six pack” of games, a quick glance back at last week’s prediction results is in order.
As the college football games played out last week, the results made week 7’s predictions an exercise in futility, bringing on the dread of actually counting the tally as the overused phrase echoed in my head, “You can’t handle the truth!” Yep, the truth produced a few dark clouds over my college football prediction landscape. How thick was the cloud cover?
Well, my week 7’s predictions’ turned in a single win versus two defeats and three “pushes” (1W-2L-3P), while my opponent, the computer random number generator was able to improve on that record by a single win, 2W-1L-3P. This was not a particularly strong showing by yours truly, so what went wrong this past week, or what were the inconvenient truths?
- The Tennessee Volunteers were completely over matched against Alabama, and this was the SEC East’s first place team. Perhaps injuries derailed the Volunteers, but then again, even with a healthier roster, they struggled against Applachian State.
- The Ole Miss defense just isn’t good enough. They can’t seem to play a base defense and stop teams consistently; as a result, they have to rely on stunts and blitzes, which is either feast or famine. Either they sack the quarterback, or the opposing offense makes a huge gain.
- Glossing over details and just taking the home team was not a sound method to base a prediction on. Yeah, that set logic based reasoning back a few years.
Anyway, time to move past the previous week and pick this week’s games.
Ole Miss at LSU (-6)
Ole Miss can’t play good enough defense to beat teams that can match their talent level, and LSU has the talent. Plus, this game is at LSU, where opposing teams usually leave with the “L”.
Computer prediction: LSU
Arkansas at Auburn (-9.5)
Isn’t this line a bit high? Granted, Auburn plays really well at home and magical things seem to happen there for the Tigers; however, did the odds makers watch Arkansas play the past two weeks? The Razorbacks are a tough team with a quarterback who will take punishment and still deliver the ball, so the ol’ “we’ll rush the passer and lock the win down” won’t just automatically generate a win. Auburn’s defense has played really well, and the offense isn’t a complete disaster now, but Arkansas racked up over 400 yards of offense against Alabama. Is Auburn’s defense better than Alabama’s? Auburn will probably win the game, but they won’t cover the spread.
Winner: Arkansas plus the points
Computer prediction: Arkansas
Texas A&M at Alabama (-16.5)
Apparently, the odds makers see this week’s top ranked game a little more lopsided than one would expect. When was the last time a matchup between two top 10 teams (#1 vs #6) got tagged with a 16.5 point spread? There’s no need to repeat all the words touting the Tide’s dominance. Yes, Alabama looks great, but this line completely disrespects a pretty good team. Texas A&M will give Trevor Knight enough to time make some plays against the Alabama defense. Plus, the Aggies will have proper motivation to keep the game from turning into a lopsided affair. Alabama will win, but they won’t win by 16+ points.
Winner: Texas A&M plus the points
Computer prediction: Alabama
Wisconsin (-3) at Iowa
Another good old fashioned game where teams will just ground and pound each other until one team is left standing…barely. Wisconsin is coming off a tough battle against Ohio State. Can they rebound and play well enough against Iowa to get the win? I think so.
Computer prediction: Wisconsin
North Carolina (-8) at Virginia
Last week, I picked against North Carolina and lost. I want to wind up on the winning side this week. Virginia is not a good football team.
Winner: North Carolina
Computer prediction: North Carolina
Texas at Kansas State (-3)
Texas head coach Charlie Strong needs this win desperately; however, even winning enough games to qualify for a bowl game this year probably won’t save his job. Kansas State plays better at home, and they have a great coach in Bill Snyder, who will have his team ready to play. Let’s go with the home team here.
Winner: Kansas State
Computer prediction: Kansas State
Well, that’s Week 8’s “six pack” selection of games, everyone. Enjoy the games!
Categories: College football
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